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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."