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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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