Beyond this Ceremony of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: An India-Russia Relationship Which Has Frayed.
The diplomatic language and optics from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India projected a enduring bilateral partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the leaders took a car journey, mirroring a known diplomatic style. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", founded on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's tenth visit to India during his 25-year rule and his 20th encounter with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Divide Between Symbolism and Substance
Nevertheless, a clear gap exists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. Although Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact purchasing less Russian oil in the face of external pressure. The two nations signed numerous agreements covering mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and academic collaboration. However, expected announcements on significant military deals failed to materialize. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by delays in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.
A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Influence
These developments suggests that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical geopolitical clout it previously did. In the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained preferential trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This unique relationship peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a appearance of this close bond through a "special and privileged" alliance announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the same significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the West.
Diversification and Underlying Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to sever its important links with Moscow. But, as Western pressure increases on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to diversify the partnership into new sectors. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an joint economic program extending until 2030, designed to make their ties "more diversified, equitable and sustainable". This includes improving market access for Indian goods to address a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two covers several key strategic sectors – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Bonds and Perceived Reliability
At an ideological level, a significant amount of closeness with Russia persists, especially among older generations of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have made critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.
The key difficulty, of course, is the continuing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement released during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, even though it ironically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the war have been minimal.
Squaring the Circle: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This dynamic does not belie the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The nation is poised to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, after a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.
How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current talks will succeed, resulting in a end of fighting and the elimination of a major thorn in its ties with the West. But, should a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the India-Russia alliance will certainly continue in European and American capitals.
